Issue 1: Is the Government Removing Subsidies for Protected Consumers?
Claim: The Government Will Remove Subsidies for Low-Usage Consumers
This claim is false. Not only is the subsidy not being removed — it has actually grown significantly.
Key Facts:
| Indicator | Figure |
| Protected consumers in FY 2022 | 9.5 million |
| Protected consumers today (2026) | 21.5 million |
| Total residential consumers | 34.2 million |
| Subsidized residential consumers | 29.57 million (86%) |
| Annual subsidy — FY 2022 | PKR 199 billion |
| Annual subsidy — FY 2025–26 (protected category) | PKR 423 billion |
| Total subsidy (Residential + Agriculture) | PKR 527 billion |
| Government-funded portion | PKR 249 billion |
| Cross-subsidy from other consumers | PKR 278 billion |
What is Actually Happening:
- The government wants to ensure subsidies go only to eligible consumers, not ineligible ones.
- A QR code registration system has been launched — already 2 million single-phase consumers have registered.
- Eligibility criteria will be determined through public consultations.
- Verified eligible consumers will continue receiving their subsidy without interruption.
Issue 2: Have Electricity Prices Actually Come Down?
Claim: Government’s Claims of Price Reduction Are Incorrect
This claim is false. Multiple concrete reforms have directly reduced electricity costs.
Savings from Key Reforms:
| Reform | Financial Impact |
| IPP renegotiations (lifetime savings, last project expires 2053) | PKR 3.5 trillion |
| Disposal of redundant GENCOs machinery | PKR 47 billion |
| GENCO employee salary cost transferred to DISCOs | PKR 7.2 billion/year |
| Reduction in DISCO losses (FY 2024–25 vs FY 2023–24) | PKR 193 billion saved |
| Reduction in Circular Debt (FY 2024–25) | PKR 780 billion |
| Subsidy budget cut (FY 2025 to FY 2027) | From PKR 1,287B to PKR 830B (relief of PKR 457B) |
| Removal of cross-subsidy on industrial consumers | Reduced from PKR 250 billion |
Average Tariff Reduction by Consumer Category (Mar-24 vs May-26, All Inclusive Rates):
The table below, sourced directly from Power Division data, shows the actual change in all-inclusive electricity rates between March 2024 and May 2026 across all consumer categories:
| Consumer Category | Mar-24 | May-26 | Tax % | Taxes Rs./kWh | May-26 All Incl. | Change Rs./kWh | Reduction % |
| Lifeline | 7.56 | 6.30 | 20% | 1.26 | 7.56 | – | 0% |
| Protected (0-200) | 24.07 | 13.80 | 16% | 2.76 | 16.56 | (7.52) | 31% |
| Non-Protected < 300 | 46.35 | 35.62 | 20% | 7.11 | 42.73 | (3.62) | 8% |
| Non-Protected > 300 & ToU | 60.47 | 45.26 | 20% | 9.04 | 54.30 | (6.17) | 10% |
| Domestic | 43.44 | 30.30 | 20% | 6.05 | 36.35 | (7.09) | 16% |
| Commercial | 76.00 | 49.13 | 43% | 20.96 | 70.08 | (5.92) | 8% |
| General Services | 61.33 | 46.76 | 18% | 8.36 | 55.12 | (6.21) | 10% |
| Industrial | 62.99 | 33.11 | 28% | 9.29 | 42.40 | (20.59) | 33% |
| Bulk | 62.00 | 45.43 | 19% | 8.60 | 54.03 | (7.98) | 13% |
| Agricultural | 47.56 | 34.30 | 19% | 6.52 | 40.82 | (6.74) | 14% |
| AJK | 61.00 | 33.65 | 0% | – | 33.65 | (27.35) | 45% |
| Others | 62.57 | 46.91 | 20% | 9.38 | 56.29 | (6.29) | 10% |
| National | 53.04 | 33.95 | 24% | 8.31 | 42.26 | (10.77) | 20% |
Note: All rates in Rs./kWh. ‘All Incl’ = all-inclusive rate including taxes. Change column shows reduction in brackets. Source: Ministry of Energy (Power Division).
Issue 3: Is Pakistan’s Energy Mix Based on Expensive Imported Fossil Fuels?
Claim: Pakistan’s Power Generation Relies Heavily on Costly Imported Fuels
This claim does not reflect where Pakistan stands today, or where it is heading. The energy mix is shifting rapidly toward clean and locally-sourced energy.
Current (2025) vs Target (2035) — Generation Mix:
| Indicator | 2025 | 2035 (Target) |
| Total Generation | 146 TWh | 186 TWh |
| Clean Energy Share | 55% | 90% |
| Local Fuel Share | 74% | 96% |
| Fuel Import Bill (USD) | USD 2.4 billion | USD 0.3 billion |
Installed Capacity Breakdown (2025 — National Grid, excl. KE):
| Source | Capacity (MW) |
| Hydel | 11,597 MW |
| Thermal | 18,375 MW |
| Nuclear | 3,530 MW |
| Renewable Energy (RE) | 2,895 MW |
| National Grid Total (excl. KE) | 36,397 MW |
| Net Metering (Solar) | 12,296 MW |
| Off-Grid Solar | 18,944 MW |
International Comparison:
Pakistan’s 57% renewable share (including hydro) is already comparable to Turkey (57%) and higher than India (48%). By 2035, Pakistan targets 90% renewables — among the highest in the region.
Issue 4: Is the Government Adding 26 GW While Underutilizing Existing Capacity?
Claim: 46,000 MW Is Installed; New Capacity Is Wasteful
This claim contains a factual error and misunderstands how power systems work.
Factual Correction: National Grid installed capacity (excluding KE) is 36,397 MW — not 46,000 MW.
Why Available Capacity Is Always Less Than Installed Capacity:
- Scheduled maintenance and forced outages reduce available plants.
- Seasonal factors: hydrology changes, solar irradiance variation, high temperatures.
- Primary fuel availability limitations.
- Transmission network congestion and constraints.
International Context: Pakistan’s Installed Capacity Is Already Modest
Critics claim Pakistan is over-building capacity. The international data tells the opposite story. Comparable economies carry significantly more installed capacity relative to their peak demand — and Pakistan, even after adding 26 GW, will still be in line with global best practice.
Installed Capacity vs. Peak Demand — Country Comparison:
| Country | Installed Capacity (GW) | Peak Demand (GW) | Capacity / Demand Ratio | Renewables Share | Hydro Share | Solar Share |
| Turkey | 128 | 60 | 2.1x | 57% | 24% | 21% |
| Brazil | 218 | 110 | 2.0x | 76% | 41% | 20% |
| India | 510 | 256 | 2.0x | 48% | 9% | 30% |
| Pakistan (Current 2025) | 58 inclusive of rooftop solar of 20GW | 27 | 2.1x | 57% | 20% | 34% |
| Pakistan (2035 Target) | 84 | 35 | 2.4x | 72% | 25% | 41% |
What This Shows:
- Turkey (128 GW installed, 60 GW peak) and Brazil (218 GW installed, 110 GW peak) both maintain a 2x capacity-to-demand ratio — exactly what Pakistan has today at 58 GW vs 27 GW peak.
- India (510 GW installed, 256 GW peak) also follows the same 2x international norm.
- Pakistan at 36 GW ( without roof top solar) installed capacity is the smallest in this comparison, yet it is already being accused of over-capacity. By contrast, these countries hold far more installed capacity against their demand and are still adding more.
- Even after the proposed 26 GW addition, Pakistan’s 2035 capacity of 65 GW against a projected 35 GW peak demand (2.4x ratio) remains well within the internationally accepted range.
- Crucially, the composition of Pakistan’s 2035 additions is focused on clean, least-cost sources — hydel, solar, wind, and nuclear — mirroring the best-practice energy mix of Turkey, Brazil, and India.
In short, Pakistan is not over-building. It is catching up with international norms while simultaneously shifting to cleaner, cheaper generation — following, not ignoring, global best practice.
What Was Done — ISP 2025 Rationalization:
| Saving | Amount |
| Forced capacity additions reduced | More than 9,000 MW removed |
| Capital investment saved | More than USD 15 billion |
| Reduction in consumer rates | PKR 4+ per unit |
| Annual savings | PKR 400+ billion |
ISP 2026 — What the 26,000 MW Actually Consists Of:
| Component | Capacity |
| Hydel (incl. Diamer Bhasha Dam — least cost) | 5,255 MW |
| Retirement of old/expensive generation | 2,577 MW replaced |
| Wind (replacing expensive fossil fuels) | 1,655 MW |
| Net-metering solar additions | 8,120 MW |
| Market-based additions (no grid consumer cost) | ~3,000 MW |
| Nuclear (least cost basis) | 1,200 MW |
| CASA G2G Project | 1,000 MW |
Note: The projected base tariff may rise to PKR 38.21/unit from current PKR 34/unit due to exchange rate movement, new capacity additions, and economic parameters — not due to excess or wasteful capacity.
Issue 5: Is the Government Against Solar Energy?
Claim: The Government Is Discouraging Solarization
This perception is incorrect. The government is strongly in favor of solar — it has streamlined and reformed the process, not reversed it.
Key Facts:
| Action | Detail |
| Solar capacity in IGCEP (national plan) | 8GW of distributed solar included |
| Consumers unaffected by net billing change | 90% (single-phase consumers) |
| Solarization projects launched | Gilgit Baltistan and Gwadar |
| Licensing fees removed (25kW and below) | NEPRA agreed to Power Division request |
| Process improvement | Digitized net billing for transparency |
Clarification on Net Metering vs Net Billing:
Net metering has been revised to net billing. This affects only 3-phase (commercial/industrial) consumers — not the 90% of households who are single-phase. The change ensures that the cost of solar credits paid out does not unfairly burden non-solar consumers.
Solar is not being discouraged. It is being regulated as a proper generation asset to ensure fairness across all consumer categories.
Summary Table
| Issue | Claim | Verdict |
| Subsidy for protected consumers | Being removed | FALSE — Grown from PKR 199B to PKR 423BSubsidies will be given to eligible consumers in future |
| Electricity prices | Not actually reduced | FALSE — Average tariff reduced for all consumer categories |
| Energy mix | Based on expensive imported fuels | FALSE — 55% clean (2025), 90% target (2035) |
| 26 GW capacity addition | Wasteful while capacity underutilized | FALSE — Rationalized, saves PKR 400B+/yr9GW of plants removed.8Gw rooftop solar added.3GW clean energy from market based procurements |
| Government stance on solar | Against solarization | FALSE — 8–9 GW solar in national plan |
